China presents its 2035 climate target: a net reduction of 7–10% from peak emissions

China submitted to the UN in November 2025 its new nationally determined contribution to the Paris Agreement (NDC): to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions across the whole economy by 7–10% from the peak level by 2035 and to strive for a better result. Climate Action Tracker recorded the submission of the document on 3 November 2025. The target was announced earlier, on 24 September 2025, by President Xi Jinping in a video address at the UN climate summit in New York.

What is new

China's earlier targets were expressed as emissions intensity (a fall in emissions per unit of GDP) and a deadline for the emissions peak. The 2035 NDC is the first absolute reduction target, covering, according to China Daily, all sectors of the economy and all greenhouse gases; the 2030 NDC concerned only CO₂. Climate Home News notes, however, that no separate 2035 targets were given for gases other than CO₂, especially methane, and that the peak year against which the reduction is calculated has not been specified.

Other commitments

The document further provides for: increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in energy consumption above 30%, expanding wind and solar capacity to more than six times the 2020 level (striving for a total of 3600 GW), making new energy vehicles the mainstream of sales, extending the national emissions trading market to key sectors, and increasing forest stock to over 24 billion m³.

Assessment by independent analysts

Climate Action Tracker rates the target as “highly insufficient” relative to modelled domestic pathways and notes that current policies already take China to this target, so it does not drive additional reductions. CREA and China Climate Hub estimate that compatibility with the 1.5°C limit would require a reduction of 30% or more by 2035. On the other hand, the move from intensity targets to absolute ones is regarded as a significant qualitative change.

What this means for methane, waste and biogas

Covering all greenhouse gases in the target increases the importance of reducing methane: landfill gas recovery, management of animal manure and the development of biogas may be tools for meeting the target, although the 2023 methane plan contained no numerical commitments and the NDC does not give a separate target for methane. Specific instruments will be set out in implementing documents.

What this means for Poland/Europe

The European Union presented its own 2035 target under the NDC relative to the 1990 base year, so comparisons with China, which calculates the reduction from an unspecified peak, are difficult. For the biogas market it is significant that Chinese commitments now cover all greenhouse gases, which may in time increase demand for methane monitoring and recovery technologies.