COP28: decision on transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, tripling renewables and methane

The COP28 climate summit in Dubai ended on 13 December 2023 with the adoption of a decision on the first global stocktake. For the first time in the history of climate conferences, the document calls on countries to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems – in a just, orderly and equitable manner – and to accelerate action in this decade. The decision also includes provisions on tripling renewable capacity by 2030, doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvement, and substantially reducing emissions of gases other than CO₂, including methane.

What is changing

The final decision does not have the same legal force as international agreements, but it is a signal for national policies and markets. Among other things, it points to accelerating zero- and low-emission technologies, including renewable energy, nuclear, CO₂ capture and storage, and low-carbon hydrogen. At the same time, it refers directly to methane: countries are called on to substantially reduce emissions of gases other than CO₂ by 2030, which reinforces the direction set earlier in the Global Methane Pledge.

Sectoral initiatives were also announced during the summit, including commitments by oil and gas companies to reduce methane emissions and a declaration on tripling renewable capacity, supported by more than a hundred countries.

Significance for the industry in Poland

As an EU member, Poland supports the EU position, but it has its own interests related to coal and gas. The COP28 decision reinforces the direction of EU policy, including the recently adopted RED III directive and the agreement on the methane regulation. Three conclusions follow for the renewable gas industry. First, methane will be increasingly regulated and measured. Second, biogas and biomethane, as technologies that reduce methane emissions from agriculture and waste, fit the global direction. Third, rising requirements for fossil fuels improve the competitiveness of renewable gases.

At the same time, it is worth remembering that climate decisions do not solve implementation problems: biomethane needs connections, financing and stable regulation, which in Poland are only now being built.

What to look out for

Businesses should follow the implementation of the decision in the EU and in the national energy and climate plans (KPEiK). An update of the KPEiK may contain targets for renewable gases and support instruments that will affect project assessments.

Reactions and assessments

The decision was received as a compromise: for some it is a historic signal, for others a text that is too general and leaves loopholes for fossil fuels. Much depends on national implementation plans. In the EU, its provisions will be used in arguments for faster implementation of RED III and the Fit for 55 package.

What next

The next summit, COP29, is due to take place in Azerbaijan in 2024. Countries will be preparing new national contributions for the years after 2030, which will increase pressure to reduce methane and develop renewable sources.