China adopts the 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026–2030. CO₂ intensity down by 17%

The Chinese parliament approved the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) on 12 March 2026. According to reports, the plan envisages cutting carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 17% over five years and raising the share of non-fossil energy to about 25%. Hydrogen and nuclear fusion were listed among future industries. The draft plan discussed by Xinhua contained 20 main indicators, five of which concerned the green and low-carbon transition.

Main climate provisions

Xinhua, in a text of 11 March 2026 (reprinted by The Star) about the draft plan, gave a cumulative target of cutting CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP by 17% in five years, and said that five of the 20 main indicators concern the green and low-carbon transition; the emissions peak is to occur before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. CGTN (14/03/2026), for its part, reports that after the outline was approved the goal is to raise the share of non-fossil energy to about 25% and to continue reducing carbon intensity, without giving a figure. According to the Climate Change Laws of the World database the plan refers more often to the emissions peak than to neutrality and does not give target years for neutrality; the same database points to Article 47.1 (expansion of the national emissions trading market and building a voluntary emission reduction market). We did not check the full text of the outline, and some of the figures come from secondary reports.

Hydrogen

Xinhua (in China Daily Asia's report of 15/03/2026) lists hydrogen and nuclear fusion among "future industries", alongside quantum technologies, biomanufacturing and 6G. According to Climate Change Laws of the World, Article 5.2 of the plan describes them as new points of economic growth, and the IEA database indicates a priority for research and development in hydrogen and nuclear fusion.

Circular economy

According to Climate Change Laws of the World, Article 50 of the plan promotes the circular economy and waste recycling, alongside the environmental protection tax, green finance and carbon-linked financial products. We found no confirmation in open sources that the outline contains numerical targets for organic waste, biogas or biomethane, so we do not cite any; detailed provisions on recycling individual streams (batteries, turbines, panels) are not confirmed in our sources. The same database also mentions about 100 national zero-carbon parks and a cut in greenhouse gas emissions other than CO₂ of 30 million t of CO₂ equivalent.

How this links to earlier documents

The target announced in 2025 by Xi Jinping for the 2035 NDC is a net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 7–10% from the peak level (Eco-Business, 9/10/2025).

What this means for Poland and Europe

The 17% target concerns CO₂ emission intensity per unit of GDP, not an absolute emissions cap. For European manufacturers of electrolysers and biogas equipment, it matters that hydrogen is officially identified as a future industry, so technological competition should be expected.