Japan: the 7th Strategic Energy Plan targets 40–50% renewables in electricity in 2040

The Japanese government approved on 18 February 2025 the 7th Strategic Energy Plan, together with the accompanying Global Warming Countermeasures Plan and the GX2040 Vision. The plan assumes that in fiscal year 2040 renewable sources will account for 40–50% of electricity generation, compared with 22.9% in fiscal year 2023, and nuclear power for about 20%.

The mix in 2040

According to Enerdata, the plan provides for: renewables 40–50% (almost double the 22.9% of fiscal year 2023), nuclear about 20% (from 8.5% in fiscal year 2023; the target for 2030 is 20–22%), thermal sources about 30–40% (from almost 69% in fiscal year 2023). To sustain 20% nuclear, most existing and under-construction reactors would have to operate, and the government intends to relax the requirements for replacing old reactors with new ones. Before the Fukushima accident in 2011, 54 reactors accounted for about 1/4 of the mix. Beyond Coal Japan reports that nuclear and renewables are together to cover at most 70% of generation in fiscal year 2040.

Criticism

Beyond Coal Japan notes that the 40–50% target applies to 2040, not 2030, and calls it extremely low, and also stresses that the government shows no intention of leading in the deployment of renewables, despite the target adopted at COP28 of tripling global renewable capacity by 2030. The plan leaves thermal power (fossil fuels) with about 30–40% of electricity generation. Enerdata describes the plan as betting on nuclear and renewables to ensure security of supply and achieve neutrality by 2050.

Where biomass and biogas fit

In the sources we analysed we found no detailed figures for biomass and biogas in the 2040 mix. It is worth checking the full text of the plan and the METI/ANRE annexes to learn the targets for biomass – all the more so as in Japan biomass is part of the FIT/FIP schemes and depends on wood imports.

Significance

The plan sets the framework for the development of renewables and nuclear power for 2030–2040. For the renewable gases market, it is significant that Japan's city gas industry assumes decarbonisation mainly through e-methane rather than biomethane (a separate article).

Lessons for Europe

The plan is an example of a policy that combines renewable sources, nuclear power and fossil fuels in a single mix. The EU, whose renewables targets are higher, has a different structure, but similar dilemmas – grid costs, storage and security – affect both markets.