POB: biomethane is about 3.5 times more expensive than imported gas, but the money stays in Poland

The Polish Biomethane Organisation (POB) presented a report comparing the macroeconomic effects of two scenarios: natural gas imports and domestic biomethane production. The author of the analysis is Dr Bartosz Moszowski, and a description of it was published on 2 June 2026. The report does not hide that biomethane is many times more expensive, but argues that this cost is of a different nature from expenditure on imports.

Assumptions and figures

The analysis was based on a volume of 1 billion m³ of gas per year, that is about 10.16 TWh of energy – a few per cent of current natural gas imports. It was assumed that the average wholesale gas price in the EU in 2024 was about EUR 35/MWh (PLN 149.55/MWh), and the reference price of biomethane PLN 545/MWh. Biomethane is therefore about 3.5 times more expensive to produce than imported gas. The annual cost of the same amount of energy is: imports about PLN 1.52 billion, biomethane about PLN 5.53 billion, that is a difference of about PLN 4.02 billion per year.

POB's argument

According to the report, expenditure on imports mostly leaves the country as a capital outflow (about PLN 1.52 billion). By contrast, expenditure on biomethane (about PLN 5.53 billion) goes to domestic firms, farmers, substrate suppliers and local government budgets, mainly as wages, taxes and domestic purchases. Producing 1 billion m³ of biomethane would require about 600 modern biomethane plants, which would mean thousands of permanent jobs in rural areas and small towns (the report does not give a number), tax and fee revenue, and a better trade balance. Biomethane can use existing gas infrastructure, is fully renewable (agriculture, food waste, sludge) and yields digestate, which can replace synthetic fertilisers.

The conditions the report sets: stable regulation, faster permitting, a low share of imports in supply chains, waste substrates, control of methane emissions and well-designed support. The recommendations include domestic production of equipment, support for waste feedstocks, integration of biomethane with the EU ETS and simplification of connections.

How to read these figures

The report is a document of an industry organisation and rests on assumptions that can be questioned: it compares the support reference price (not the market cost) with the 2024 wholesale gas price and does not calculate effects for end users. Readers in the comments pointed out that the higher cost of energy burdens households and businesses; the article does not develop this thread. Even so, it illustrates an important dispute: whether to pay more for energy so that the funds stay in the economy.

Significance for the industry in Poland

The discussion of biomethane costs is key in the context of auctions and the RES fee from which support is to be financed. The costs estimated in the 2025 regulatory impact assessment (about PLN 1.3 billion per year from 2034) are many times smaller than in the scenario of 1 billion m³, because they concern a volume of up to 300 million m³. For investors the analysis is an argument in discussions with decision-makers, and for officials – a reminder that support should be designed with its fiscal effects in mind.

What to watch

In interpreting it, it is worth taking gas price volatility into account: geopolitical tensions raise import prices, which reduces the difference. In a scenario of high gas prices the cost argument weakens, and the security-of-supply argument grows.