Draft KPEiK: biomethane at 15.5 TWh in 2030 and 40.5 TWh in 2040

The draft update of the National Energy and Climate Plan (KPEiK), submitted for consultation in October 2024, for the first time assigns biomethane a specific role in a Polish strategic document. In the ambitious WAM ("with additional measures") scenario, biomethane production would reach about 15.5 TWh in 2030 and about 40.5 TWh in 2040. Earlier versions of the documents mentioned biomethane in general terms, without figures.

Figures from the draft

In the power sector, the forecast share of RES in gross final electricity consumption in 2030 rose from 32% (in the 2019 KPEiK) to 56%, and in 2040 it is almost 70%, mainly thanks to photovoltaics and wind. Biogas, biomethane, storage, hydrogen and nuclear power are also mentioned. The article did not give values in billion m³; converting would require an assumption about the calorific value.

What installations the plan promotes

The draft points to the development of small agricultural biogas plants, which help farmers manage waste and generate energy for their own needs, as well as larger biomethane plants. Installations with a capacity of about 2–4 MW were named as more economically efficient. The support package is to include additional financial resources for installations above 1 MW, a direct gas pipeline for biogas and better cooperation with the electricity and gas transmission system operators.

Critical comments

Polska Grupa Biogazowa (PGB) stressed that the gas grid is not ready to take larger volumes of biomethane, which may be the biggest technical barrier. The company wanted the scope of support extended to grid development. This is consistent with the provisions of the EU gas package, which requires ensuring access and firm capacity for renewable gases.

Significance for the industry in Poland

Entering figures into KPEiK matters because the document is a reference point for NFOŚiGW programmes, auctions and the development plans of grid operators. Earlier, industry organisations had pointed out that the absence of a biomethane target in KPEiK makes investment planning difficult. At the same time, 15.5 TWh in 2030 is a value orders of magnitude higher than the situation in 2024, when no biomethane plants were operating. Delivery depends on the pace of connections, on support and on the availability of substrates, and at the time of the consultation no biomethane plant connected to the grid was operating in Poland.

What next

KPEiK is a document subject to approval and later updates. The draft went to consultation in October 2024 (comments could be submitted until 15 November 2024), and the final version is to be sent to the European Commission. The industry will apply for the plan to include a target of 2 billion m³ of biomethane in 2030 and support for grid development. For investors this is an important reference document when planning financing programmes.