EBA lowers its assessment of biomethane potential for 2030 to 34–35 billion m³

The European Biogas Association (EBA) published on 21 April 2026 a report in which it revised downwards its assessment of biomethane potential in Europe for 2030. According to the new assessment, for the EU-27 and the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland it is 34–35 billion m³. The report appeared on the day the European Commission presented its "Accelerate EU" communication.

What the report says

For later years the potential is higher: 116–132 billion m³ in 2040 and up to 205 billion m³ in 2050. The association stresses that the lowering of the 2030 assessment does not stem from a shrinking feedstock base, but from too little action having been taken to launch projects and mobilise feedstocks in time. Europe currently produces about 22 billion m³ of biogases per year, of which about 5 billion m³ is biomethane, produced almost exclusively by anaerobic digestion.

Feedstock structure: 81% of the potential is agricultural residues, animal manure, crops grown as catch crops and industrial wastewater. About 60% of the potential is concentrated in five countries: Germany, France, Italy, Poland and the United Kingdom. EBA Managing Director Harmen Dekker stated that without a stable and consistent policy framework the sector cannot scale. The Commission estimates that in 2025 the EU spent EUR 336.7 billion on energy imports, and a further approximately EUR 22 billion is linked to recent geopolitical tensions.

How to read these figures

Potential is not a production forecast. A report from April 2024 (Guidehouse) indicated 111 billion m³ in 2040 for the same area; the new assessment of 116–132 billion m³ in 2040 is similar or higher, so the correction concerns primarily the nearest years. This is a classic conclusion from delays: potential shifts in time, it does not disappear.

Significance for the industry in Poland

Poland is one of the five countries with the greatest potential, and at the same time one of the slowest to launch: in 2026 one biomethane plant connected to the grid was operating, and the act with auctions was still awaiting adoption. The report's conclusions match Polish experience: there are plenty of feedstocks (slurry, residues from agriculture and processing), and the bottlenecks are procedures, support and connections. For investors it is an argument to prepare projects with a time buffer and alternative schedule scenarios.

For policymakers the EBA's message is also an appeal: the cost of launching domestic production is sometimes higher than imports, but in times of geopolitical tension import prices rise and supply uncertainty has its price.

What to watch

The report refers to "regulatory barriers and slow deployment", but the press release does not list them all; the EBA listed five regulatory barriers in a separate flyer in October. It is worth comparing the values with subsequent reports and data on capacity actually brought into operation.