European Commission recommends a 90% emissions reduction target for 2040

On 6 February 2024 the European Commission recommended that the Union's 2040 climate target be a 90% net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared with 1990 levels. It was an intermediate step between the 2030 target (at least 55%) and climate neutrality in 2050.

What was proposed

The document was based on an impact assessment that compared several emission reduction pathways. The Commission chose the 90% option, considering it consistent with the carbon budget and with the goals of the Paris Agreement. The recommendation was meant to indicate a direction for the next Commission, appointed after the European Parliament elections in June 2024, which was to prepare specific legislative proposals for the period after 2030.

An important limitation: the document set no sector targets. Agriculture could, as stated, "play a role", but it did not specify what measures would ensure this. On the same day the Commission also presented an industrial carbon management strategy (capture, transport and storage of CO₂).

Reaction of the biogas industry

The European Biogas Association (EBA) welcomed the target as a necessary response to the climate crisis, but regretted that in the Commission's scenarios biogas and biomethane play a secondary role to other energy carriers. The association called for a target of 100 billion m³ of biogases in 2040, arguing that this would avoid more than 483 million tonnes of CO₂ per year. A Guidehouse report, in turn, estimated that Europe (EU-27, the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland) could produce 111 billion m³ of biomethane in 2040.

Significance for the industry in Poland

The 2040 target shapes demand for biomethane indirectly: by tightening the EU ETS, designing ETS2 for buildings and transport, and defining pathways for industry. Two issues were important for the Polish industry. First, Poland had from the outset raised reservations about the pace of reductions and the costs of ETS2. Second, a rising CO₂ price improves the competitiveness of biomethane against natural gas, and in the absence of a national support system (as of 2024) this is one of the few factors that could favour investment.

What next

The recommendation had no legal force. A binding target required amending the regulation establishing the climate neutrality framework, and therefore a Commission proposal, positions of the Council and Parliament, and negotiations. That process was only beginning. For readers this is an important note: the date of the recommendation and the date of binding law can be many months apart.

What to look out for

In the discussion on the 2040 target it is easy to confuse three levels: the Commission's recommendation, the co-legislators' positions and the final text of the law. The biogas sector should follow not only the figure "90%", but also how the effort is divided between the ETS, ETS2 and the sectors outside them (agriculture, waste), because this determines demand for renewable fuels and the criteria for biomethane. It is also worth remembering that methane emissions from waste and agriculture are covered by their own regulations, rather than by a single price instrument.