IEA: a 10-point plan for the EU to reduce dependence on Russian gas. A place for biogas and biomethane

The International Energy Agency (IEA) published on 3 March 2022 a plan of 10 actions that would allow the European Union to reduce imports of Russian gas by more than a third within a year. The document was prepared in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the growing risk of supply interruption. Among the proposed measures was also increasing the supply of biogas and biomethane – with the caveat that their supply chains need time.

What changes

In 2021, according to IEA estimates, Russia delivered about 155 billion m³ of gas to the EU, most of it by pipeline. The agency's plan does not assume a single recipe but a set of short- and medium-term actions:

• not concluding new contracts with Russia and replacing supplies with gas from other sources, including LNG,
• introducing minimum obligations to fill gas storage,
• accelerating the build-out of wind and photovoltaic farms,
• maximising the use of existing low-emission sources, including bioenergy,
• shields for electricity consumers,
• faster replacement of gas boilers with heat pumps, improved efficiency and a temporary 1°C reduction of temperature in buildings.

Biogas and biomethane appear in this puzzle as an element of increasing domestic gas supply. The IEA stipulates, however, that this is a source with a slower pace of growth: projects, grid connections, permits and feedstocks are needed.

Significance for the industry in Poland

Poland is of particular significance in this plan. Russian gas made up a significant part of national imports, and the Yamal contract was ending in 2022. At the same time the country has large agricultural and waste potential for biogas. In March 2022, however, the rules still in force do not define biomethane and do not provide for a register or guarantees of origin for it.

For investors this means two things. First, the attention to gas policy shows that renewable gas can count on political support. Second, the pace at which installations are built depends on quickly sorting out the rules on grid connection, support and certification.

How to calculate the effect

The IEA plan operates on a scale of tens of billions of cubic metres a year, so individual biogas plants will not change the balance. It is important, however, that the agency takes into account domestic sources that can be developed in parallel with imports. In the biogas industry this means the need to think in portfolio terms: there is no single source that will replace Russia, but a set – LNG, storage, efficiency, renewables and renewable gases. For biomethane, the most important thing is that projects do not wait years for permits and connections, because it is precisely time that determines how much gas will appear in the system by the end of the decade.

What next

The IEA announces further analyses, and the European Commission is preparing its own package of measures. It is worth watching whether a specific target for biomethane will appear in the EU plans, what support instruments will be proposed, and whether funding from EU funds for biogas upgrading installations will increase.