The Korean hydrogen economy roadmap: targets to 2040 and their delivery

The Korean Hydrogen Economy Roadmap, announced in January 2019, was the first document of this rank to set hydrogen as a pillar of South Korea's industrial policy. It envisaged by 2040 about 6.2 million fuel cell vehicles (of which about 2.9 million for the domestic market and about 3.3 million for export), 1,200 refuelling stations and about 15 GW of fuel cell capacity in the power sector, including about 7 GW for export.

Main pillars

According to the CSIRO HyResource summary the document comprised three blocks: mobility, power generation and hydrogen supply. In mobility, domestic demand was to be created by 2.75 million passenger cars, 80,000 taxis, 40,000 buses and 30,000 trucks. In the power sector, besides 15 GW of fuel cells for electricity generation (7 GW for export), about 2 GW of cells for homes and buildings was envisaged. The third block concerned hydrogen supply: the roadmap assumed demand of about 1.9 million t per year in 2030 and over 5 million t in 2040, compared with 130,000 t in 2018, although it is hard to say what share is to be clean hydrogen (domestic or imported).

The reality after a few years

Market development turned out to be slower than assumed. A study by the law firm CMS cites about 14,500 fuel cell vehicles in operation (about one third of the global fleet, according to this source) and a fall in registrations of more than 50% in 2023; the same text also gives a figure of 35,000 vehicles (including vans and trucks), which shows that the results depend on the way of counting. The government sets a target of 300,000 fuel cell vehicles by 2030. Buses developed faster than cars — according to CMS, 1,000 had been registered by July 2024, and the target for 2030 is 21,200 hydrogen buses. In the power sector Korea became in 2023 the first country to exceed 1 GW of installed fuel cells for electricity generation, and in 2024 it launched the world's first tender for clean hydrogen power.

Measures supporting the roadmap

CSIRO HyResource lists several steps that were meant to give the roadmap real tools. At the end of 2019 the government announced a "hydrogen cities" initiative, in which three cities were to be selected; in July 2020 the Korean New Deal extended support to, among others, hydrogen vehicles. In November 2022 the media reported further targets: developing 600 hydrogen companies by 2030, producing 30,000 hydrogen commercial vehicles by 2030, building 70 liquid hydrogen stations by 2030, and a share of clean hydrogen in the energy mix of 7.1% in 2036. A liquefaction plant with a capacity of 40,000 t per year was also planned, liquid ammonia logistics hubs (including Boryeong, Dangjin, Yeosu, Hadong, Gangneung and Samcheok) and hydrogen pipelines in the conurbation south of Seoul. According to CMS the first commercial liquid hydrogen plant was commissioned in Changwon.

What happened later

The roadmap was supplemented by legislation: the Act on the promotion of the hydrogen economy and hydrogen safety entered into force on 5 February 2021 (separate entry), and in 2023 a clean hydrogen certification system was introduced. In 2024 the CHPS (Clean Hydrogen Portfolio Standard) system for power generators operates — its first auction brought far fewer contracts than were offered (we describe it in a separate entry).

Conclusions for renewable gases

The Korean roadmap concentrated on hydrogen, not biomethane, and biogas appears in separate policies on organic waste (see the entries on the Korean biogas act). The example shows that ambitious volume targets, unless accompanied by parallel development of the supply of cheap fuel, infrastructure and a stable subsidy system, slip in time — this applies also to biomethane and bioCNG. When assessing such documents it is worth distinguishing a political target, a target supported by the budget (subsidies for vehicles and stations) and a market target, that is what customers will actually buy.