New Zealand: new 2050 biogenic methane target – 14–24% relative to 2017

According to the New Zealand Ministry for the Environment, the current target for biogenic methane for 2050 is 14–24% below the 2017 level. It replaced the original range of 24–47% from the Zero Carbon Act of 2019. The change was made by the Climate Change Response (2050 Target and Other Matters) Amendment Act 2025 (Public Act 2025 No 80); according to legislation.govt.nz it received assent on 16 December 2025 and came into force a day later (the parliament's page gives 15 December as the date of assent). The interim target for 2030 – a 10% reduction relative to 2017 – remained unchanged.

Where the change came from

The government announced the lowering of the target on 12 October 2025 and – according to RNZ – at the same time ruled out methane taxes. The change results from the review by the independent panel (the Methane Science and Target Review, appointed in 2024) and the statutory review of the 2050 target by the Climate Change Commission. The panel indicated that a reduction of about 14–15% relative to the 2017 level by 2050 would meet the goal of no additional warming in scenarios in which global emissions do not fall quickly.

A new review of the target

The act added section 5QA, which requires an assessment of whether the biogenic methane component of the 2050 target remains adequate, and a recommendation for the target for the calendar year beginning on 1 January 2050. Commentaries describe this review as scheduled for 2040, so that the target reflects the latest science and the efforts of trading partners.

What the 14–24% range means

The upper bound of the new range (24%) coincides with the former lower bound of the target (24%), so the new range lies below the former one and touches it at a single point (24%). For the agricultural sector this means a much smaller effort than under the 2019 act.

The waste sector

For waste the same target for biogenic methane applies, and landfills remain in the ETS.

What this means for Poland and Europe

New Zealand is an example of how methane targets are treated as a subject of scientific and political negotiation. In the EU the methane regulation concerns energy, and agriculture is discussed in separate policies. For Polish investors this is a signal that methane reduction projects should be assessed for profitability without assuming constant, growing climate support.